Journal of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development

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Empirical growth rate analysis of rice production in Nigeria and its implication on food security: Comparative assessment of three economic reforms phases in Nigeria.

Sadiq, Mohammed Sanusi




Accepted 22nd December, 2014


This study was carried out to provide empirical evidence on the growth rates of rice production in three sub – periods in Nigeria namely pre – Structural Adjustment Programme period, Structural Adjustment Program period and post – Structural Adjustment Programme period. Secondary data on rice production in Nigeria during the Pre – Structural Adjustment Programme period (1970 to 1985), Structural Adjustment period (1986 to 1994) and post - Structural Adjustment Programme period (1995 to 2013) were employed in this study. A growth rate model was used to estimate the growth rates in the three sub – periods. The results of the analysis showed that the instantaneous growth rates of maize production are 5.8%:7.8%; 9.2%:11.6% and 2.4 %:1.1% and the compound rates of growth of maize production are 106%:108%; 110%:112% and 102%:101% for the pre – Structural Adjustment Programme, Structural Adjustment Programme and post – Structural Adjustment Programme periods respectively. Rice production during post-SAP periods experienced relatively lower instability compared to other two periods. However, statistically significant deceleration was confirmed during the SAP period. Economically the declining trend in the growth of rice production in the Structural Adjustment Programme period implies that the policy reforms in the period was not effective in ensuring increased growth of rice production over that of other periods in Nigeria. Therefore, SAP programme was strictly ‘economy killing by deep neck cutting’. Despite the myriads of problems associated with the programme in Nigeria, there is need for continuous in-depth analysis of the past reform programmes with a view to draw lessons for future reforms.


Keywords: Growth, rice, refoms, food security, Nigeria